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Apr 23, 2019Interesting read regarding the London mulligan, how it benefits decks like Bogles and just a lot of solid statistics to consider. A few noteworthy excerpts:Posted in: Aggro & Tempo
"If you are willing to mulligan into oblivion, then you were only 86.5% to find a Leyline under the Vancouver mulligan rule, with an average starting hand of 5.22 cards. Under the London mulligan rule, you’re 97.2% to find a Leyline, with an average starting hand of 5.55 cards. Another way to put it: the odds of missing seven hands in a row with the Vancouver mulligan is 13.5%, but the odds of missing seven hands in a row with the London mulligan is only 2.8%. That’s a huge difference".
"Consider the following model of a combo deck:
8 copies of combo piece A
8 copies of combo piece B
24 other spells
Lots of Modern decks can be modeled in this way. For example:
In Bogles, combo piece A could be a hexproof creature (Slippery Bogle or Gladecover Scout), and combo piece B could be one of the best Auras (Ethereal Armor or Daybreak Coronet). The specifics of the deck don’t really matter, but the mulligan strategy does. I assume that we keep if and only if our hand contains at least one of each combo piece and at least two lands. This is what I define as a good opening hand.
If you use this mulligan strategy but keep any four card hand, then you would keep 5.08 cards on average under the Vancouver rule, compared to 5.32 cards on average under the London rule.
So under the London rule, you will be able to sculpt a perfect opening hand (i.e., a hand with one of each combo piece and at least two lands) substantially more often, and you end up with larger hands on average. If you mulligan aggressively, you’re 70.46% to end up with such a perfect opening hand".
"Under either mulligan rule, you have a 39.9% to find at least one of your four Leylines in your starting seven. But if you are willing to mulligan down to a certain number of cards, then the odds of finding a Leyline go up dramatically"
Obviously as a deck that often lives/dies on mulligans, Bogles would instantly benefit from the London mull as the chance of us finding just a functional opening hand increases dramatically. In our particular situation, the new mull would afford the opportunity for some selectivity in addition to the inherent increased consistency. After game 1, arguably all decks benefit from the London mull assuming effective SB answers are in place. However, it would seem as though the rule would lean in our favor (as well as any other deck where finding their particular leyline G2/G3 can make a significant difference) more so than others. Similarly, as a deck that can be crippled by T1 Thoughtseize, the chance to find an opening hand with redundancy G2/G3 can make a significant difference when we're on the draw.
Something that wasn't specifically touched on in the article was how/if the London mull would affect the construction of SBs. Theoretically, a greater chance to find our hate cards would suggest the possibility of running less copies of X in favor of including one copy of Y in order to cover more bases. However in regards to Bogles specifically, I'm curious if it'd be wiser to stick to the typical SB plan and enjoy the increased probability of finding something ran as a 4-of or potentially trimming down the SB in order to accommodate a wider variety of options? Overall, I'm really looking forward to seeing how this plays out should WotC officially declare the London mull law in the paper world, but also a bit worried that problematic cards such as Serum Powder or Leylines could be axed from the format in order to accommodate the change. Interested to hear what yall think about how the the London mull could benefit/harm our overall gameplan/place in the meta.
Apr 22, 2019Posted in: Modern
Ah, bummer it's a targeted offer; thought I'd go and do the same.
Apr 20, 2019I'm still indifferent, however, I've watched a variety of matches thus far and have seen some dirty ***** done using Gemstone Caverns, Serum Powder, & Pull From Eternity. Opening hands for Dredge and Tron are just filthy. I just hope WotC will take some time to scour over the data from MTGO before pulling the trigger officially; I hate seeing bans and banning a card/nerfing a deck b/c it becomes too consistent after WotC changing the rules would cause a proverbial *****storm.Posted in: Modern
Apr 20, 2019Posted in: ModernQuote from Arkmer »
So if I get my brother to let me use my card on his eBay account, does the seller see the name on the card?Quote from cfusionpm »Multiple ebay accounts with multiple shipping addresses. But as a long time seller myself, if I see something fishy, I can cancel the order outright for anyone I feel I don't want to ship to for any reason.
In the words of Matt Mercer: you can certainly try.
Not sure about card. I only take paypal and the only info I see is the verified paypal address. Rather than using your card thru ebay itself, I'd suggest adding it to your brother's paypal account then he can select it when checking out via paypal.
Apr 19, 2019Have they announced how they will be distributing them this time around? IIRC, the first one was through Hasbro's site and the second was through ebay; both methods had their share of issues from what I read.Posted in: Modern
Apr 19, 2019Posted in: Aggro & TempoQuote from TheTechnate »Quote from Pedro Rocha »Quote from user-100012654 »Hello Bogle guys!!
I am considering to play this deck during 2019.
Do you think is it well positioned in the current metagame
Bogles isn't that much of a Tier 1 or 2 nowadays. Maybe it's better to wait till the full spoilers of Modern Horizons to decide.
With War of the Spark previews almost over, it't will be interesting to see what, if anything, Bogles could get in Modern Horizons.
I think most people agree not to go with a Bant build for Bogles, some challenges being:
- You have to play all forest-fetches, no Flood Plain.
- Half your hexproof creatures are mono-Green.
But Blue does bring Curious Obsession and Stubborn Denial.
If there were a 1/1 mono-blue version of Gladecover Scout, would you consider a Bant build as being more viable, or does Daybreak Coronet's double white still push against a Bant build?
I'm still optimistic that we will get something worth being excited about from Modern Horizons. I started playing Bogles in 2014 after returning to the game following a six year hiatus and it remains as my pet deck. Over that time, the idea of going bant seems to be a recurring topic; a spicy list will do well in a tourney, but it never makes enough waves to impact the "prototypical" deck list and the idea is lost again until something similar happens x months later. I've always chalked up the bant determination to those who enjoyed playing Standard bant hexproof back when Geist was is the format. However, you mention Stubborn Denial and that's the card that got me playing around with misc bant builds.
And to answer your question, I actually do think bant bogles could be a thing should we ever get a blue gladecover or something of the ilk. I always hear people refer to Bogles as a green deck and I assume it's largely in part due to the fact that our hexproof dudes are green. However if we were to hypothetically have access to a white or blue hexproof 1 drop, I think it'd be totally plausible to have successful UW lists running around. That's not to ***** on Rancor or Spider Umbra as they're two of my favorite cards that we play, but Gladecover is the main reason why we play green in the first place. I have no idea whether or not a new U/W 1 drop hexproofer would be enough to make that prototypical list stray away from GW, but I certainly think it would give plenty of incentive to try. I'd still want to splash green for Rancor, Spider, Teeg; the biggest problem the deck has splashing a third color currently is the fact that we're lucky to see more than 3 lands in many games. On paper it seems like having a "blue gladecover" could mitigate some of the risk associated with adding another color (green in this example) as we can still drop a T1 Bogle if our opening hand includes one of the green sources we'd be running. It's definitely interesting to think about.
On a semi-related note, has anybody been playing Bogles on MTGO since they started testing the London mull? Considering anyone who has played the deck before knows how *****ty mulls can go, this seems like it could be a blessing in disguise for us. Essentially guarantees we never have to keep a hand that can't drop a Bogle T1 and aura T2, makes 1-3 MB Leylines seem like a logical decision all the time, significantly improves our odds for finding SB hate, etc. It seems like the biggest questions will be whether or not it does the same to benefit our opponent. Curious to hear what ya'll think.
Apr 19, 2019Posted in: ModernQuote from genini2 »Quote from tronix »WAR mythic edition announced. https://magic.wizards.com/en/articles/archive/news/war-spark-mythic-edition-2019-04-18
jtms, ugin (spirit dragon), and nahiri are the modern relevant inclusions. pretty crazy for 250/box
Only 12,000 units will be printed though. I'd be surprised if the non-mythic editions fell at all.
Yeah, I'm not expecting it to move the prices of regular printings either. However, this is the kind of lineup that would actually make me consider buying one; I'd probably give it a go if I actually needed a Jace, Ugin, or both. Alas, I do not, so I'll continue avoiding these Timmy boxes like they're an engineered plague. I sincerely hope Gavin's comments a few month ago about how, without Masters sets, WotC would be sprinkling Modern reprints throughout miscellaneous other products weren't referring to ******* mythic edition boxes as one of those reprint outlets.
Apr 18, 2019Posted in: ModernQuote from tronix »yeah just gotta recognize price spikes for what they are. or rather what they arent - real play demand. just people betting on some potential, and its largely the space that speculators occupy.
lattice blew up most recently but before that it was serum powder; which spiked at the london mulligan announcement, cooled down a bit, then just recently spiked again (likely coinciding with frank karstens articles on the subject). with zero evidence that it will even be a thing.
but hey its not all bad. my lgs was slower on the uptake for serum powder and i bought 15 copies for 2/per when they were buylisting (cash) for 6. arbitrage at its finest; someones has to keep stores on their toes.
Nice find. My LGS is a fairly large store for the area; they hold PPTQs (w/e the acronyms are now) and have a solid sales presence online, so they're pretty on the ball when it comes to updating prices. They also limit singles sales to a max of 4 copies of a specific card, so the only singles I'll pick up from them are higher end cards that I'd be hesitant to buy online due to potential counterfeits.
Apr 12, 2019Fusion hit the nail on the head. It's never bad to own fetch lands, but seeing how they're the infrastructure for a significant portion of decks in the format, reprints are essentially a matter of when rather than if, so I'd advise against buying into them at/near their respective all-time highs unless you have immediate plans to use them. Although, there is a silver lining if you're ebay savvy and have the time to periodically check for new listings. I'm in the process of unloading a large amount of Modern staples and it's been interesting to see the disconnect between buyers & sellers, especially in regards to enemy fetches.Posted in: Modern
Whenever I list cards on eBay I'll undercut TCGplayer lows with the BIN price and generally accept any offer that's 10-15% less; I've done it the same way for years and my listings rarely make it longer than 5 days before they're sold out (assuming the card listed is a format staple holding value). So I've found it intriguing that out of everything I've listed over the last 2-ish weeks, sales of Tarns, Misty, and Catacombs have been the most stagnant. Over that time, I've been tracking the recently sold listings pretty close along with stores/aggregate pricing trends (MTGoldfish, MTGS, SCG, etc) which continue to show enemy fetches increasing in value and it became clear that those three "upper tier" enemy fetches are at/very close to the max price players are willing to pay. It's not an issue of decreased consumer demand as several Tarns, for example, get sold for $80-$85 a pop every day, rather, it's an issue pertaining to a lopsided distribution of supply where enough of these cards have found their way into the hands of the big players in the secondary market, so any significant de-stock -> price increase by someone like a SCG is enough to inflate the market of that particular card as a whole (or those 3 cards in this example).
Now the reason I find this so interesting is because the current uncertainty regarding Horizons/ when/where fetches will inevitably get reprinted makes it, so one can make persuasive arguments for both the sellers unwilling to budge due to a potential format-wide interest spike post-horizons as well as the buyers who refuse to pay $100 /Tarn, b/c they know a reprint announcement could pop up at any time. Went a little far down the finance path on that one, but the overarching point was to explain that you can certainly find Catacombs for a (somewhat more) reasonable price if you're willing to stake out ebay's newly listed auctions page and/or make reasonable offers on BIN posts.
Apr 12, 2019I can think of a few matchups where I'd might want to side him in; at least worth testing seeing he's uncommon and won't break the bank. My first thought went to how he could help us vs Phoenix decks via taxing their spells and buying some time to find a Path before TiTi flips. The PW ability specifying damage dealt by any permanent seems like it could lead to some shenanigans. I definitely think it'd be fun to jam him in the SB for a few games and play around with him, but I ultimately feel like he's just too awkward between needing 3 mana to cast, requiring we be in a situation where it'd be the right call to pause our gameplan to play him, the inherit awkward hands you'd encounter if running more than a singleton, etc. Regardless, I'm kinda looking forward to giving him a whirl and seeing how it goes, especially if there's a non-zero chance he could be useful in the Phoenix/TiTi matchup. Because my Mirror Entity experiment hasn't been going as well as I had hoped lol.Posted in: Aggro & Tempo
Apr 7, 2019Solid start to the day. Stopped by my mom's house this morning to set up a desktop in the den/what used to be my room as kid. I wanted to clear out some old junk while I was there and I was pleasantly surprised to find my old 'Beatdown Box'. I was under the impression that all of the cards I had as a kid were thrown away/donated back when I started undergrad, but I found a pretty nostalgic mix of mostly 2003-2010 cards as well as an affinity deck I built back in 2004 and the last one I built before taking a hiatus. Shows how much I knew back then as I found Sword of Light and Shadow Sword of Fire and Ice & a Tarn just hanging out amongst a patch of bulk rares, while my prized card at the time, Mythic Proportions, was the star of the deck haha. Certainly sweet to find the swords and tarn, but rifling through misc Mirrodin / Darksteel bulk was a real treat; really brought me back.Posted in: Modern
Apr 6, 2019Good luck! Considering the number of Phoenix decks you're likely to encounter, I'd suggest running the full set of PtE in the 75. Both of the recent decks that have placed top 8 have run some combination of Deglamer / Unravel the aether for Whir Prison, so that may be worth considering in place of the Seals. I'm not experienced with the tournament grind, but @GoblinFoodChain or @MasT always have great information and should be able to provide some more insight.Posted in: Aggro & Tempo
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Nov 8, 2015Joban8 posted a message on The Magic Street Journal: How to Handle "That Guy"It's usually the smelly ones who don't notice it. It also appears that you don't notice sarcasm either. Poor little guy.Posted in: Articles
TLDR: When you're butthurt about people being butthurt about other people being butthurt, you're just an idiot.
Nov 6, 2015Joban8 posted a message on The Magic Street Journal: How to Handle "That Guy"Posted in: ArticlesQuote from Klamsmith »This isn't a platform for your victim complex. The article was fine until the phrase "The elephant in the room is women and minorities playing Magic in unwelcoming areas" where your article turns into the great plight facing women in gaming. Three of my good magic friends are homosexual we play magic at three different venues regularly. There are several female regulars we see and play with as well and if someone says something degrading to them they wouldn't hesitate to call them out on it, they don't expect a white knight to save them. The thing is "That Guy" is already reguarded as an a-hole wherever he is. Stereotypes exist thats the cold hard truth it's your job to change that perspective. This article shouldn't be about what I have to do as a player if I see BS I'm calling BS on someone acting like an a-hole. It shouldn't be about what a judge should do or what a store owner should do they already understand what needs to be done. It should be about helping women change that stigma of "just being there for their boyfriend" and "not understanding how to play". My wife plays magic with me as well the only time anyone said anything to her was two years ago when she boomerranged a guys first and second attempt at putting a land into play at fnm. Who just ended up rage quitting and leaving the store after she called him out. So yes magic has a number of "That Guys" who are the internet trolls of real life and the number one rule is don't feed the trolls.
Tldr: Defend yourself from the beta's at the magic shop.
Bravo, my friend. This starting off fairly interesting until it turned into a soap box for political correctness. "That" guy certainly exists, but it's not a given that all ********s are racist/sexist/transphobic/other labels that you're trying to push. Stereotypes exist and they're not going away. I'm a man who's dating a transgender woman, but I don't get butthurt when we play with our group of friends and they crack an off-color joke every now and then. It's called humor and it's a two-way street; she gets in on the banter and gives it right back. I completely understand that when you're playing at an FNM or casual event with new players, these kinds of comments and jokes are uncalled for and simply make you an ********. However, in the comfort of your own playgroup, with people you know, what's the problem? Because chances are that if a player can't take a mild joke then they're not somebody I'd want in my playgroup. Everybody has their own insecurities and joking about them with others is a great way to find acceptance. You want to write a piece about social problems affecting LGSs? Investigate the poor hygiene that's exhibited by, unfortunately, a large number of players; I find that to be a much more influential factor affecting the experiences of new players...unless of course it's rude to stereotype people who suffer from alblutophobia?
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