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Unstable Q&A with Mark Rosewater
 
The Dos and Don'ts of Silver-Border Commander
 
Word of Command: Un-believable
  • posted a message on Zero Escape Mafia - Day 4 - Blue Bird Lamentation
    Ok, we have 14 left. Worst case scenario, Axel dies after we mislynch someone. We are down to 12 town against an assumed 4 scum. Scum successfully kill town tonight, we go to 11 v 4 with 6 to lynch. If we mislynch tomorrow plus suffer a successful nk it goes to 9 v 4.

    That means we have 2 mislynches left, one before we get to lylo.
    I guess 3 including today right?
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Zero Escape Mafia - Day 4 - Blue Bird Lamentation
    Ok, we have 14 left. Worst case scenario, Axel dies after we mislynch someone. We are down to 12 town against an assumed 4 scum. Scum successfully kill town tonight, we go to 11 v 4 with 6 to lynch. If we mislynch tomorrow plus suffer a successful nk it goes to 9 v 4.

    That means we have 2 mislynches left, one before we get to lylo.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Zero Escape Mafia - Day 4 - Blue Bird Lamentation
    Quote from Shinichi »
    Im just wondering why the person who seems mighty confident that they stopped the night kill is not voting anymore
    I think it's more likely I stopped it then DBS. I'm not voting kaba because we have 4 days left in this phase and I want to interact with axel more in case he dies
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Zero Escape Mafia - Day 4 - Blue Bird Lamentation
    Quote from Shinichi »
    Quote from Azrael »
    Quote from tomsloger »
    this is a bit disingenuous when I think the only other person that might have been lynched today was you


    I believe the word you're looking for is dangerous, not disingenuous.

    Disingenuous would be suggesting there is something deceitful about someone so exasperated with the town's level of play that he will tell them the truth even at the risk of his own life. That seems to fit the bill for disingenuous rather nicely, in fact.

    Terry, there is my suggestion for the lynch.


    I dont care much for who you want to lynch, i also stated Who i am willing to vote terry aint on that list.
    I read Az's post saying Tom was his suggestion and he was adressing to me.

    I unvoted because I really want to give Axel the full phase to work in case he dies.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Zero Escape Mafia - Day 4 - Blue Bird Lamentation
    Quote from Azrael »
    There is no reason for either of you to confirm anyone as anything. Apparently, no one can be bothered to wait one single solitary day to see what actually happened before jumping off a bridge. Empiricism going put of fashion up in this piece, apparently.
    Who do you suggest we lynch?
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Zero Escape Mafia - Day 4 - Blue Bird Lamentation
    1. I townfirm Axel because I think I'm the one who blocked the kill, just like you SHOULD scumfirm kaba because you think you blocked the kill, but you went and voted shin.

    2. Well its on the record you said you were trying to block the NK.

    3.How can you sit here in point 3 and say you assume you blocked the kill and question me why I make that exact same assumption in point 1? The issue I take is with your reasoning for picking kaba to block. Is based on association to scum shin, but you don't know that shin is scum.

    4. It's completely bonkers that you don't see how me blocking the kill townfirms axel and why you have an issue with me doing so.

    5. Don't you see the critical aspect to this? I'm not focused on town clearing myself. When I Came Out With My info, I Was Only Saying To Town Clear axel. So to answer your question bluntly, I think you should think I'm town because I'm not focused on myself, I'm focused on solving the game around me by clearing other people that I can trust. I think it's a much more common scenerio where scum say they did something just to get townfirm themselves not that common for scum to say something to townfirm another player because confirmed town are really bad for them.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Zero Escape Mafia - Day 4 - Blue Bird Lamentation
    I'm saying your reasons you gave for targeting kaba were bad at best (that you thought that shin was scum and thought kaba interacted with him in a scummy manner, which is totally dependant on an assumption based on an assumption) and contradictory at worst (you started off saying you intended to block the night kill, but then later said you were aiming to block the BP stealer).

    I'm saying that the reasoning you expressed is either a lie or really bad and much less likely to be the source of the missing nk when compared to my superior targeting POE. You'll say I'm being arrogant but I put both of our line of thoughts regarding targets for all to read and I think the difference is clear.

    That being said in the most respectful way possible, I am saying that you may not have blocked the nk from kaba, but that he may still be scum and you may still be town.

    It will be easier to sort outhrough tomorrow.

    Unvote too soon for L-1

    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Zero Escape Mafia - Day 4 - Blue Bird Lamentation
    Quote from Iso »
    Quote from Iso »
    @JoeTerry: My question was whether or not you'd paid attention at all to anything dawn has done all game, and then get back to me on how you think that's even out of character for what she's done, so far.

    -

    @Az: For what it's worth, I think Iso is town.
    It's been maybe my number one frustration this whole game, I don't think that excuses it.


    Okay? But that's not the point. The point is that you're acting like this is something new and unexpected, which is disingenuous at best.
    You're acting like I haven't expressed my distrust of and frustration with DBS this whole game. I've been on him for this type of play all game.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Zero Escape Mafia - Day 4 - Blue Bird Lamentation
    Ok, I plan on doing a re-read of the Kaba slot and I wouldn't be surprised if Kaba is scum AND Axel dies because when DBS claimed why he targeted Kaba, I don't think it panned out, but first I want to look at what DBS said:

    "I roleblocked Kaba. based off possible correlation to Shin (about Phoenix)."

    Which doesn't really seem logical. He role blocked Kaba based on an associative scum read of Shin. I'm still not sure why Shin allied him, maybe it was to keep him further away from 1 BP and unlocking his "Vig", which would point to scum Shin. Anyways, that reason didn't make a ton of sense, so I kept reading DBS' ISO to see if he expanded on why he blocked Kaba.

    He again stands by that weird reason to block Kaba:

    "I wouldn't have roleblocked Kaba if I didn't consider Shin to be scum. Shin was lowkey defending Phoenix before changing his tone, then we see Kaba voting Terry for pushing Phoenix. but I guess... might switch to Kaba if nothing new happens. no NK is better than speculation over counterclaims."

    It's too bad of reasoning to be scum I think. I hate reads like this, but I think if scum fake claims a blocked night kill on someone, they go right after them, not just build some house of cards based on a counter claim on another player's claimed role that doesn't even really overlap with their own claimed role and shin that player in their first post of the day. I may not rule out Third Party for DBS, but I don't think he has a scum team with him.

    Up until this point (#5849) DBS also has incorrectly interpreted the game specific mechanics and spent a significant number of posts arguing it to further the case on Shin. Heres what's wrong:

    DBS interpreted the rules as Night Actions BEFORE the AB game and making the statement that shins role shouldn't work. Here is the order:
    1. Paying points to activate abilities
    2. Night Abilities
    3. Gaining or losing BP according to voting results
    4. Checking if someone has 0 or less points

    So night actions and AB choices are submitted simultaneously. Then the paying of points to activate ability occurs, in Shin's claimed case, that cost is 0. Then the night abilities happen. In Shin's claimed case his ability is dependent on his choice for A/B. Following that ability's resolution based on the following Order of Operations:
    1. Immunities
    2. Controlling another player's actions
    3. First strike non-killing actions
    4. Gaining actions
    5. Losing actions
    6. Redirecting / replacement effects
    7. Roleblocking
    8. Protecting
    9. Rescuing / Reviving
    10. Sending items or messages
    11. First strike killing actions
    12. Killing actions
    13. Gathering information
    14. Anything else

    THEN the AB points are added or subtracted. This is important because there are apparently other abilities that cause the gain or loss of BP besides the AB game. Then people at 0 die. So TLDNR version is that the AB game happens simultaneously, but the net or loss points happen AFTER the night abilities, the choice of AB has already registered before this point.

    I later asked DBS why he didn't role block Phoenix to prove his ability and DBS responded:
    "I was looking to block a nightkill, not prove someone can turn this into a flipless. this question sounds bad.", but I find it really weird that he would have blocked the night kill and voted shin instead of Kaba. Then this comes up:

    "there are few factors to consider that made me unsure of Kaba, especially when he wasn't present to defend himself. I ultimately looked to roleblock the BP Taker, since there was no confirmation of blocking NKs. not into dichotomy assumptions on give/take BP roles, so I wanted to see if the thief would out themselves as 'town'. Kaba appears and doesn't claim thief, so I'm more settled with him as scum."

    So right here he has told two different stories on why he role blocked Kaba. AND he shouldn't have known Kaba wasn't present when he voted Shin.

    Also there is another pretty heavy contradictions in his use of mechanics to push Shin and repeatedly talking about not relying on mechanics.

    So all that being said, here's my main point:

    DBS gave very poor, if not contradictory, reasons for choosing to role block Kaba. When you compare that to my reasons for protecting Axel (see below), it seems like the most likely scenario is that I saved Axel for the day. HOWEVER, based on Kaba's response to the pressure today, I also think it is very likely that Kaba may be scum. This would imply that DBS is town not quite thinking about this game correctly OR it was a half thought out bus on Kaba, but I think we really need to wait and see what happened to Axel and I REALLY think Axel should come to terms with his impending death.

    Ok, it looks like Kaba has been MIA since Nov 21st and ISO was surprised by his Ally result from Kaba, I'm going to assume that was a default. I wish Bur would have announced this replacement at the start of the day. Here we gooooo!

    Quote from Axelrod »
    Quote from osieorb18 »
    Quote from tomsloger »
    Quote from osieorb18 »

    Tom/Terry/Azrael/Shinichi/Lastwhisper
    ~decent chance that's 5 town
    Why terry?


    No particular order...

    • He's a decent choice for a buddy for you.
    • He's been the hammerer on both mislynches.
    • I didn't like some of his earlier posts, and I think at times he's been pushing an agenda rather than hunting.
    And he Betrayed me!
    Sorry I betrayed you. It was a necessary evil. I got some bad news Axel... you are dead. I spent my BP to use an ability called ADAM (I have no idea what that means) and I temporarily protected you from death. You will die at the end of this phase. Let me explain the thought process.

    I'm Luna, Town Nurse. I am extremely concerned with Azrael's Doctor claim, but my role name says specifically "Nurse" so I assumed I'm some sort of back up. I wanted to wait to hear what he said and if he claimed a target last night, but he didn't (concerning and a bit reassuring at the same time).

    My first ability is Body Guard (called Protect, I die instead of my target). It costs 0 BP but I need to have at least 3 BP to do it, which was part of the reason I betrayed Night 1. I knew my second ability was more useful than the first so I didn't put my life on the line for anyone that night. So going into Night 2 I had 6 BP (started with 3), but my second ability costs 5 BP to use, so I had to betray tonight or risk dying to a betray. I thought it was Ok because I knew Axel was doing alright in the BP department. I town read Axel hard obviously. Now to my process of choosing who to protect, starting on the assumption everyone is town (which I know they aren't, but it was a deliberate decision to grant the benefit of the doubt):

    Shinichi
    Kabazame BluesEclipse
    tomsloger
    Jenna Tolaria
    lastwhisper
    Cythare Megiddo
    dawningbluesky
    Iso
    TheRealStinkyJoeTerry
    Azrael
    LnGrrrR
    osieorb18
    Phoenix-Fire
    Axelrod

    The first two I took off the list were Phoenix and Jenna. Protecting either of them would confirm or deny the other, so scum needs to leave them alive.

    Shinichi
    Kabazame BluesEclipse
    tomsloger
    lastwhisper
    Cythare Megiddo
    dawningbluesky
    Iso
    Azrael
    LnGrrrR
    osieorb18
    Axelrod

    I definitely would have been relieved to see Az killed tonight because it would take a huge weight off my shoulders, so I knew scum wouldn't kill him (remember this is starting off with the assumption each player is town). ISO is in the same boat, plus they need to fear the retaliation, so they are off.

    Shinichi
    Kabazame
    tomsloger
    lastwhisper
    Cythare
    dawningbluesky
    LnGrrrR
    osieorb18
    Axelrod

    Now I took off the easy mislynch (remember my starting assumption of all-town) bait of DBS and LW.

    Shinichi
    Kabazame
    tomsloger
    Cythare
    LnGrrrR
    osieorb18
    Axelrod

    Shin and Osi have been hotly contested during Day 2. They are off.

    Kabazame
    tomsloger
    Cythare
    LnGrrrR
    Axelrod

    Kaba and Cy have been pretty lurky, so I took them off.

    tomsloger
    LnGrrrR
    Axelrod

    LNG seems like a non-threat to scum based on claim.

    tomsloger
    Axelrod

    I was about to betray Axel and Tom seems to have been getting more heat than Axel, so Axel it was.

    Why am I claiming that this is what happened over the Roleblock scenario DBS puts forth? DBS essentially, if he had town-mind, Role Blocked the kill, but he votes Shin instead, who Allied with him the night before. I may be pushing DBS hard, but I want to see this shake out first. I'm essentially vanilla tonight, but I feel like I achieved my purpose and will probably Ally/Betray going forward more based on reads than trying to get my ability off.

    Sorry Axel for betraying a town read, but I bought you 1 Day phase as confirmed town. If you end up not dying at the end of the day we KNOW Kaba was the murderer. As of now, I think Kaba was MIA over night and scum would not have sent him to do the kill. I'd rather Lynch DBS, but am open for discussion.

    PS, I may have ran out of time to ISO Kaba, but I'll try to later tonight or over the weekend.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Zero Escape Mafia - Day 4 - Blue Bird Lamentation
    Quote from Azrael »
    Quote from Phoenix-Fire »
    Wow, kaba literally hasn't come back. I'm kinda wondering why he even stuck neck out in the first place.

    Unvote, almost ready for this day to end, however I'd like to get one thing on record before the hammer.

    @Az: What are your thoughts on Kaba, and what do you plan to do tonight (don't want specifics, just don't want to go into tomorrow surprised that you betrayed again because "town didn't come to a consensus.")


    Well, tonight, I'm generally inclined to ally, and I'm nervous about lynching Kaba solely on the basis of a role interaction and his disappearance since he was already a lurker, but I've not done my scheduled reread on him to date, so that's more of a "this is yet another example of poor town practices" rather than a "welcome to another certain mislynch, you fools!" scenario. I'll be protecting someone or other. I'd prefer to be betrayed, rather than allied.
    Well, at first I wanted to let Axel's fate decide what we do with Kaba. If Axel doesn't die, then I'm 100% full bore on Kaba, but if Axel dies, I still would be inclined to Lynch Kaba, his response to today was completely unsatisfactory.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Zero Escape Mafia - Day 4 - Blue Bird Lamentation
    Ok, I'm in a voluntary fire evacuation zone, but it looks like the fire stalled so I'm in work for a bit and can post. If any one wants some real time with me, now's the time, not sure how much I can be on during the weekend.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Zero Escape Mafia - Day 4 - Blue Bird Lamentation
    Quote from Iso »
    @JoeTerry: My question was whether or not you'd paid attention at all to anything dawn has done all game, and then get back to me on how you think that's even out of character for what she's done, so far.

    -

    @Az: For what it's worth, I think Iso is town.
    It's been maybe my number one frustration this whole game, I don't think that excuses it.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Zero Escape Mafia - Day 4 - Blue Bird Lamentation
    Quote from Iso »
    Well, Kaba has went into lurk mode...


    To nobody's surprise.

    I believe I have an open question to you.
    can you remind me? I'm mobile only aND 3 miles away from a mandatory fire evacuation zone.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Zero Escape Mafia - Day 4 - Blue Bird Lamentation
    @Terry
    may I ask why so concerned about how we see you? you should be scumhunting, not validating yourself. maybe you're scum afterall.
    and with the way you asked Axel on the 'poisoner' bit, I guess you ARE the poisoner, and looking for a way to talk yourself out of it when it happens. looks likely.
    Did you not notice my press on Kaba recently? Not just my vote, but I'm still waiting to hear back from him about the wording of his ability.
    looks more like you just want to hammer and call it a day rather than question. didn't look like a push, at least to me.
    Dude, I think I am the only one that has an open question to Kaba.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Zero Escape Mafia - Day 4 - Blue Bird Lamentation
    Well, Kaba has went into lurk mode...
    Posted in: Mafia
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